Friday, 26 June 2015

Decision time for Liberal Democrats

The ballot papers are dropping through letterboxes for the Lib Dem leadership election. It's a straight fight between Tim Farron and Norman Lamb.

As an activist in East Surrey since 1999 the most common response on doorsteps I encountered up to 2010 was "...but you've never been in government". We've heard a lot less of that one recently. Unfortunately, since December 2010, it's been "...but your leader lied over tuition fees".

Of course he didn't lie about it. It was a pledge which had to be traded. Coalition Government means making massive compromises to get the bulk of your policies pushed through. The Conservatives failed to implement many of their manifesto pledges as coalition trade-offs. Did that attract any attention?
A huge swathe of the Lib Dem manifesto was implemented from 2010 to 2015, taking millions of low-paid earners out of tax, securing decent increases in pensions, free childcare and school meals for infants, protecting civil liberties... the list goes on. Yes, these were Lib Dem policies, though you'd be forgiven for thinking they were Tory ones as they hijacked one after another when it became clear the mass media liked the sound of them.

Nick Clegg did an amazing job leading the Lib Dems in coalition. He forced Cameron to moderate the right wing of the Conservative Parliamentary Party and fended off a swathe of policies which would have undermined our civil liberties and further increased the gap between rich and poor. Little of it reported by the press. Nothing new there; something Lib Dem activists have always been frustrated by.
However, despite all the good, he will always be remembered for the rise in tuition fees. Many low-income households don't have to pay the full amount, or anything at all, to send their children to Uni - but why let the facts get in the way of a good story.

So out with the old and in with the new. But which new one?

Membership of the House of Commons doesn't come close to representing the population. The leadership of political parties particularly so. The majority all middle class, white males with privileged, paid-for education. What Farage refers to as "Establishment" (and don't let him fool you into thinking he's any different!), though he was a commodity broker before politics.

What the Liberal Democrats could do with is a non-establishment figure as their next leader. Someone from a working-class background. Someone who voted against an increase in tuition fees. Someone who is clearly a passionate libertarian. Someone who clearly isn't "Establishment".

So that's Tim Farron then.

Saturday, 9 May 2015

The turkeys will never vote for Christmas

With the look of  a thirsty man arriving at a pub five minutes after closing, Nigel Farage declared the current first-past-the-post electoral system "Bankrupt", following his defeat in the highly contested, marginal seat of Thanet South.

Yes, Nigel. We know.

The Lib Dems have been banging on about the need for Proportional Representation (PR) for years. They brought it to the coalition table as one of their 2010 manifesto pledges but Cameron threw them an AV referendum bone (nothing even close to PR) in exchange for their support on reducing seats in the Commons to 500 from 650 and other parliamentary reforms. Fortunately, the Lib Dem contingent didn't obediently wag it's tail and told him where to stick its support for his reform plans.

Unfortunately, Dave and the Tories weren't about to do themselves out of jobs. Having secured 307 seats (47.2%) with just 36.1% of the vote, PR in 2010 would likely have left them in oppostion to a Lib/Lab coalition who could have commanded 337 seats from their combined 52% vote share.

Obviously, these PR figures are based on the simplest calculations, a working model would probably have regional lists and other elements to create variation around the UK.
Continuing with a simple calculation though, PR in 2015, instead of first-past-the-post, would have set the parties up for some interesting potential coalition discussions.

CON 36.9
LAB 30.4
UKIP 12.6
LD 7.9
SNP 4.7
GRN 3.8

The simple fact is, Nigel, unless you command a majority government with the will and the manifesto pledge (like the Lib Dems) to change the voting system in the United Kingdom, it's never going to happen. And if you ever were in that position, you probably wouldn't.

Turkeys, given the chance, are not likely to vote for Christmas.