Saturday, 9 May 2015

The turkeys will never vote for Christmas

With the look of  a thirsty man arriving at a pub five minutes after closing, Nigel Farage declared the current first-past-the-post electoral system "Bankrupt", following his defeat in the highly contested, marginal seat of Thanet South.

Yes, Nigel. We know.

The Lib Dems have been banging on about the need for Proportional Representation (PR) for years. They brought it to the coalition table as one of their 2010 manifesto pledges but Cameron threw them an AV referendum bone (nothing even close to PR) in exchange for their support on reducing seats in the Commons to 500 from 650 and other parliamentary reforms. Fortunately, the Lib Dem contingent didn't obediently wag it's tail and told him where to stick its support for his reform plans.

Unfortunately, Dave and the Tories weren't about to do themselves out of jobs. Having secured 307 seats (47.2%) with just 36.1% of the vote, PR in 2010 would likely have left them in oppostion to a Lib/Lab coalition who could have commanded 337 seats from their combined 52% vote share.

Obviously, these PR figures are based on the simplest calculations, a working model would probably have regional lists and other elements to create variation around the UK.
Continuing with a simple calculation though, PR in 2015, instead of first-past-the-post, would have set the parties up for some interesting potential coalition discussions.

CON 36.9
LAB 30.4
UKIP 12.6
LD 7.9
SNP 4.7
GRN 3.8

The simple fact is, Nigel, unless you command a majority government with the will and the manifesto pledge (like the Lib Dems) to change the voting system in the United Kingdom, it's never going to happen. And if you ever were in that position, you probably wouldn't.

Turkeys, given the chance, are not likely to vote for Christmas.